Update Feb 22, 2016: Since this article was published on Feb 20th, I learned of some research on who Bush voters would pick as their second choice:
Based on this, only 35% of Bush voters would be establishment candidates (Rubio 19% and Kasich 16%), and Trump would get 11% of those votes.
While it’s hard to understand how any Bush voters would support Trump, these results make the concept in the original article below less valid.
Donald Trump won the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries by a wide margin. But, he wouldn’t have won either of them if he was competing against just one so-called “establishment” candidate. That might be the one way to stop his path to the Republican nomination.
Looking back at New Hampshire, if only one establishment candidate had run and if 89% of those establishment candidates votes for Kasich, Bush, Rubio, and Christie had gone to just one of those candidates, Trump would have lost.
In South Carolina, if 92% of the votes for establishment candidates Rubio, Bush, and Kasich had gone to just one of those candidates, again Trump would have lost.
Neither the New Hampshire or South Carolina exit polls have asked voters who would be their second choice, so knowing exactly who these establishment candidate voters would support is hard to say. But I think it’s fair to suggest they would support their fellow establishment candidate over Trump or Cruz.
Since Christie and Bush have now dropped out, if either Rubio or Kasich drop out, it could help the other one beat Trump (and Cruz as well.)
It’s a true “prisoner’s dilemma,” where two individuals (Rubio and Kasich) might not cooperate, even though it might be in their best interests to do so in order to stop Trump.
Here’s a look at the numbers for New Hampshire:
And here’s how the numbers work out for South Carolina:
